Preţul materiilor prime va urca vertiginos

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Ziarul de Vrancea

22 sep 2011 1068 vizualizări

 Preţul aurului ar trebui să crească în continuare, ca urmare a încercărilor investitorilor de a se proteja de volatilitatea valutelor, iar porumbul va fi materia primă cu cea mai bună evoluţie a preţului în trei-şase luni, a declarat managerul unei divizii de investiţii la Deutsche Bank. Cotaţiile materiilor prime vor urca, în medie, cu 6-8% pe o perioadă de 12 luni, consideră Theresa Gusman, de la Deutsche Bank RREEF Commodity Advisors, fond care administrează active de 4,5 miliarde de dolari. Gusman are, însă, o atitudine mai prudentă pe termen scurt în privinţa metalelor destinate sectorului industrial şi a produselor din sectorul energetic. "Ne aflăm pe un trend de creştere pe piaţa materiilor prime, deoarece sursele de aprovizionare sînt limitate, iar cererea vine din China, India şi Orientul Mijlociu, toate pieţe în curs de dezvoltare. Consumatorul marginal a devenit Statele Unite", a spus managerul, într-un interviu pentru Reuters. Pe termen scurt, echipa de analişti de la Deutsche Bank RREEF Commodity Advisors este optimistă în privinţa aurului, întrucît monede precum dolarul, yenul sau euro se confruntă cu probleme. "Ne aşteptăm ca preţul aurului să crească. Reprezintă în continuare un plasament sigur într-o perioadă de depreciere a valutelor", a declarat Gusman, adăugînd că departamentul pe care îl conduce are ca obiectiv un preţ ţintă peste 2.000 de dolari pentru o uncie de aur. Cotaţia porumbului pe pieţele internaţionale va creşte, susţinută de cererea puternică înregistrată în China în ultimii ani şi de stocurile reduse din SUA. Situaţia dificilă a pieţei imobiliare din SUA şi temerile că cea mai mare economie a lumii va intra probabil în recesiune au un impact negativ asupra preţului cuprului, mai sensibil la perspectivele economice. Pe termen scurt, cotaţia barilului de ţiţei Brent nu va depăşi 120 de dolari, consideră Gusman, însă pe termen lung aceasta va urca spre 150 de dolari, din cauza resurselor limitate şi a cererii foarte mari de pe pieţele emergente, precum China.

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